Tag Archives: Economic Trends

Understanding Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis in Investing

This article is primarily intended to give an introduction to how technical analysis is used to make investment and stock market trading decisions. It will then compare the position of technical analysts to fundamental analysts in terms of what information and data each group uses in their quest for high returns.

I have sourced most of the information below from a copy of the 2007 CFA Level 1 course notes that I have been reading.

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis involves the examination of past market data, such as stock prices and the volume of
trading, to lead to an estimate of future price trends and subsequently an investment decision.

The assumptions underpinning the technical analysis model are as follows:

  1. The market value of any good or service is determined solely by the interaction of supply and demand.
  2. Supply and demand are governed by numerous factors (examples include people’s moods, guesses and opinions). The market weighs all these factors continuously and automatically.
  3. The prices for individual securities and the overall value of the market tend to move in trends, which persist for appreciable lengths of time. That is, when new information enters the market, it leads to an adjustment of stock prices.
  4. Prevailing trends change in reaction to shifts in the supply and demand relationship. These shifts can be detected at some point in the action of the market itself.

The philosophy behind technical analysis is in sharp contrast to the efficient market hypothesis and fundamental analysis.

Fundamental Analysis Versus Technical Analysis

Fundamental Analysis involves making investment decisions based on the difference between the fundamental value of a company and the current price of that company’s stock.

Fundamental analysis involves an examination of the economy, a particular industry, and financial company data in order to lead to an estimate of value for that company. If this value is then compared to the current stock price, investment decisions can be made assuming that the market will correct and move towards the estimated value at some point in the future.

Although both fundamental and technical analysts agree that the price of a security is determined by the interaction of supply and demand, technical analysts and fundamental analysis have different opinions on the influence of irrational factors. A technical analyst might expect that an irrational influence may persist for some time, whereas other market analysts would expect only a short-run effect with rational beliefs prevailing over the long-run.

A bigger difference exists between the two regarding the speed of adjustments of stock prices to changes in supply and demand. Technical analysts believe that new information comes to the market over a period of time because of different sources of information or because certain investors receive the information or perceive fundamental changes earlier than others. Based on this belief they expect stock prices to move in trends that persist for long periods, and a gradual price adjustment to reflect the gradual flow of the information.

However, fundamental analysts believe that new information comes to the market very quickly and they expect stock prices to change abruptly as a result of this.

How do Technical and Fundamental Analysts make investment decisions?

  • Technical analysts make investment decisions by examining past market data to estimate future price trends. They identify new trends and take appropriate actions to profit from the trends. Technical analysts use market data and non-quantifiable variables like psychological factors and claim that their method is not heavily dependent on company financial accounting statements.
  • Fundamental analysts make investment decisions by examining the economy, the industry and the company to estimate the intrinsic value of the company’s stock. They then compare the intrinsic value to the prevailing market price and take appropriate actions. Fundamental analysts typically use economic data (including accounting data and information released by the company to the market).

Why Technical Analysts believe Technical Analysis is superior

According to technical analysts, it is important to recognise that the fundamental analysts can experience superior returns only if they obtain new information before other investors and process it correctly and quickly. Technical analysts do not beleive that most investors do so consistently.

Secondly, Technical analysts believe that it is too difficult for fundamental analysts to pinpoint a specific time to take investment actions even if they have identified the under-valued or over-valued securities.

Technical analysts need only quickly recognise a movement to a new equilibrium value for whatever reason (they need not know about an event and determine the effect of the event on the value of the firm and its stock). In addition, because they don’t invest until the move to the new equilibrium is under way, they contend that they are more likely to experience ideal timing compared to the method of fundamental analysts.

Finally, technical analysts believe that financial statement analysis is not sufficently accurate to depend on to make investment decisions and therefore consider it advantageous not to depend on such statements.

I will later write an article about the potential fundamental analysts’ responses to these points but more can be read about fundamental analysis and Warren Buffett’s concept of Value Investing in one of my previous articles (includes a video).

Click here for a look at Company Valuation methodologies like multiples and discounted cashflow analysis.

Hedge Fund Trading Styles and Strategies Uncovered

There are four broad styles of hedge funds and multiple strategies beneath each style which are discussed at length in the book Hedge Funds Demystified by Scott Frush. This article summarises the four broad hedge fund styles and provides an insight into the management of hedge funds.

In many cases, Hedge Fund managers combine strategies from the styles below but regardless of the strategy, each has the aim of generating attractive absolute returns. This is the fundamental difference between most investing funds (eg mutual funds) and hedge funds; hedge funds aim to deliver absolute returns in both a bull and a bear market.

The following are the primary strategies employed by hedge funds (such as the infamous Long Term Capital Management Fund), grouped by style:

Tactical (also known as directional)

  1. Macrocentric – Strategy where the hedge fund manager invests in securities that capitalise on domestic and global market opportunities. Trading strategies are generally systematic or discretionary; systematic traders tend to use price and market-specific information (often based on technical trading rules) to make trading decisions, while discretionary managers use a judgmental approach regarding differences between current financial market valuations and what is perceived as the ‘correct’ or fundamental valuation.
  2. Managed futures - Strategy where the hedge fund manager invests in commodities derivatives with a momentum focus, hoping to ride the trend to attractive profits.
  3. Long/short equity - Strategy where the hedge fund manager combines long holdings of securities that are expected to increase in price with short sales of securities that are expected to decrease in price. Long/short portfolios are directional – that is, the investment strategy is based on the manager’s expectation of future movements in the overall market – and may be net long or net short. Short positions are expected to add to the return of the portfolio, but may also act as a partial hedge against market risk. However, long/short portfolios tend to be quite heavily concentrated and thus the effectiveness of the short positions as a hedge against market risk may be limited.
  4. Sector-specific – Strategy where the hedge fund manager invests in markets in specific sectors by going long, short, or both.
  5. Emerging markets – Strategy where the hedge fund manager invests in less developed, but emerging markets.
  6. Market timing – Strategy where the hedge fund manager either times mutual fund buys and sells or invests in asset classes that are forecast to perform well in the short term.
  7. Selling short – Strategy where the hedge fund manager sells short borrowed securities with the aim of buying them back in the future at lower prices thus making a profit.

Relative value (also called arbitrage)

  1. Convertible arbitrage - Strategy where the hedge fund manager takes advantage of perceived price inequality with convertible bonds and the associated equity securities.
  2. Fixed-income arbitrage - Strategy where the hedge fund manager purchases a fixed-income security and immediately sells short another fixed-income security to minimize market risk and profit from changing price spreads. This was one of the key strategies employed by Long Term Capital Management before its demise. This is known as a non-directional spread trade. Managers take equal long and short positions in two related securities when their prices diverge from their typical relationship. Positive returns are generated when the prices of the two securities re-converge. Because arbitrage opportunities can be limited and the returns from these trades tend to be quite small, arbitrage strategies often employ higher leverage than other funds in an attempt to maximise the profit from exploiting these perceived mis-pricings.
  3. Equity-market-neutral - Strategy where the hedge fund manager buys an equity security and sells short a related equity index to offset market risk. An example of this would be buying Coke stock and selling Pepsi short. Market neutral managers attempt to eliminate market risk by constructing portfolios of long and short positions which, when added together, will be largely unaffected by movements in the overall market. Positive returns are generated when the securities which are held long outperform the securities which are held short. Market neutral portfolios tend to be more heavily leveraged than the long/short directional portfolios discussed above.

Event-driven

Event-driven strategies seek to take advantage of opportunities created by significant corporate transactions such as mergers and takeovers. A typical event-driven strategy involves purchasing securities of the target firm and shorting securities of the acquiring firm in an announced or expected takeover. Profits from event-driven strategies depend on the manager’s success in predicting the outcome and timing of the corporate event. Event-driven managers do not rely on market direction for results; however, major market declines, which might cause corporate transactions to be repriced or unfinished, may have a negative impact on the strategy.

  1. Distressed securities - Strategy where the hedge fund manager invests in the equity or debt of struggling companies at steep discounts to estimated values.
  2. Reasonable value – Strategy where the hedge fund manager invests in securities that are selling at discounts to their estimated values as a result of being out of favor or being relatively unknown in the investment community.
  3. Merger arbitrage - Strategy where the hedge fund manager invests in merger-related situations where there are unique opportunities for profit.
  4. Opportunistic events - Strategy where the hedge fund manager invests in securities given short-term event-driven situations considered to offer temporary profitable opportunities. An example of this may be if a piece of legislation is about to change and particular companies are likely to benefit.

Hybrid

  1. Multistrategy - Strategy where the hedge fund manager employs two or more of the above strategies at one time. Managers may elect to employ a multi-strategy approach in order to better diversify their portfolio or to avoid constraints on their investment opportunities.
  2. Funds of funds - Strategy where the hedge fund manager invests in two or more stand-alone hedge funds rather than directly investing in securities.
  3. Values-based - Strategy where the hedge fund manager invests according to certain personal values and principles.

The benefits of an economic recession and how to prepare for one

Bear market

I recently read an interesting article about the potential upsides that accompany a recession. With much talk of a recession in the coming months in Australia and one already on the cards in the USA, I thought it may be worthwhile to outline some of the positives that accompany the fear associated with a recession.

Ultimately, a recession will bring a slowdown in spending, a tightening in the job market and an increase in corporate restructuring and lay-offs. This, most people are aware of.

However, for those willing to use sound financial and business analysis, a recession can bring a wealth of opportunities and provide the necessary timing to enter a number of markets.

I like to think of a recession as a time where almost everything goes on sale because this outlines the number of opportunities that are available to the everyday person or investor.

I have outlined 2 main investment related benefits of a recession below and then summarised a few common benefits after that: Continue reading The benefits of an economic recession and how to prepare for one

Stock market beginners – What moves the stock market and stock prices?

what drives the stock market ?

What factors move the stock market? What about individual stocks? How do interest rates affect the stock market and what does this have to do with the Consumer price index and inflation?

Many people know that economic factors such as corporate profits and interest rates tend to influence the movement of the broader stock market. However, I found it particularly interesting to actually analyse how these factors move the market and whether one should follow such trends when purchasing individual stocks.

Corporate profits and GDP

A drop in the Gross domestic product (GDP), the market begins to fear a recession and a subsequent drop in corporate profits. With worsening economic conditions, the market may enter a recession resulting in reduced demand for many company’s products.

Following on from this, many company’s earnings will be affected and the corresponding company stock price will fall (rationale outlined below). Thus, when the GDP and corporate profits fall, the market will suffer.

Continue reading Stock market beginners – What moves the stock market and stock prices?

Welcome to JamesCox.com.au

original james cox finance blog background

This website will share a range of financial information centering mainly around corporate finance, investing, share trading, the stock market, growing companies and business, Economics, Law, Random relevant news events, and generally making money (probably some poker thrown in).

I am writing this blog for three main reasons. Since finishing my law degree, I find myself reading many books on these subjects and so far i am finding them particularly interesting.

In addition to this, financial topics are traditionally very hard to ‘get into’ or learn about and there seems to be a certain and somewhat intentional cloud of secrecy around their understanding. The number of times I have searched “learn share market” or “what is an option?” into Google and arrived at a page telling me to go to seminar or pay for an ebook (that is likely to tell me to go to a seminar) has led me to believe someone should be providing this information for free.

Finally, understanding these things is interesting even on the face of it but can obviously allow you to have a much greater chance of success in a variety of important facets of life no matter what you do and who you are. You don’t have to be a capitalist or investment banker to enjoy finance and regardless of your political and moral inclinations, understanding these topics are likely to increase your ability to live in what is obviously a capitalist society.

I am not a finance expert, I have a sound business sense in development and a legal background, but i am by no means going to write like so many money magazines or guides where you need a cipher to understand the majority of an article. Ideally, this blog will be simple, straight to the point and introductory to a wide range of financial topics.

This blog will hopefully demystify some of the concepts that seem so foreign to most people and provide a less than 400 page insight into the financial world from the perspective of an financial novice as I begin to truly understand alot of the concepts myself.

I look forward to writing this blog and i hope someone out there will enjoy reading it.

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